Geostatistics/reliability based risk analysis of the Vajont landslide

摘要

This paper is devoted to the probabilistic analysis of the Vajont landslide event according to the basic statements of risk analysis. In particular, the goal is to find out a regressive estimate of the landslide rate of movement in terms of the rainfall, R(f), and the reservoir level, R(l), time evolution during the test period. This will be obtained by developing a kind of geostatistical analysis on the space of standardized variables (R(f), R(l)), based on classical ordinary kriging. Risk analysis will be formulated introducing a suitable safety margin function, depending on the mass of the slide, M, on its initial velocity, v(in), and the amplitude, H, of the water wave flowing out of the Vajont basin.